Label – The impact of heat waves is intensifying towards the European continent over the coming weeks, particularly in central Europe and its southwestern regions, extending from North Africa. But what is the impact of this on the region? And why have heat and dry waves intensified towards the European continent in recent years?
Unusual Atmospheric Circulation|
The cause of these intense and continuous heat waves is attributed to unusual atmospheric circulation resulting from abnormal pathways of the subtropical jet stream and increased activity on the polar jet stream in the sub-polar and upper polar circles, which causes unexpected results on the nature of the atmosphere or weather conditions that may occur with it.
It is observed that the jet stream intensifies greatly along the coasts of western Europe or splits into two surges resulting from major thermal changes in the Atlantic Ocean region, particularly its northern and tropical parts, which cool from time to time.
These sharp bends caused an increase in what is called subtropical atmospheric highs resulting from a process of descent and dynamic heating in the nature of tropical atmospheric circulation, which causes continuous heat waves on the European continent, especially during summer.
And sometimes, as a result of significant intensification of the jet stream in both its subtropical and polar types, this may lead to the development of severe North Atlantic storms during summer that push heat waves towards central and eastern Europe and even Siberian regions, which foreshadows the gradual approach of heat waves to our regions.
Expected Results|
The expected results depend greatly on the location of the heat waves and their method of extension. In the case of heat waves that affect Europe from south to north, reaching the edges of the Scandinavian islands as will happen in the coming period, this is reflected in moderate conditions in the eastern Mediterranean, Libya, Jordan, Egypt, Palestine, northwest Saudi Arabia, and even western Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and intensification of the impact of heat waves towards the east and center of the Arabian Peninsula and Iran.
However, if Atlantic storms intensify that push heat waves further towards central and eastern Europe, this leads to the approach of heat waves from the eastern Mediterranean and northern Arabian Peninsula, but it leads to a decrease in temperature and a reduction in the intensity of extreme heat in the eastern and central regions of the Arabian Peninsula.
Therefore, the expected results are linked to the nature and shape of these heat waves and how they affect the European continent during the coming period, which will take a form from the southwest to the north and northeast, affecting Spain, France, eastern Britain, and central Europe and parts of southern and eastern Germany, allowing moderate winds to flow towards the eastern Mediterranean and northern Arabian Peninsula.
The Impact of These Heat Waves on the Seasonal Rains in Southern Saudi Arabia|
These heat waves in the European continent in this manner cause a rise in temperature in central, eastern, and southern Saudi Arabia, which contributes to activating "tropical easterlies" towards southwest Saudi Arabia, which leads to the activity of southwestern seasonal winds that increase the proportion of seasonal humidity in the regions of southwest Saudi Arabia and weather disturbance and intensification of heavy seasonal rains.
And sometimes, as happened during last summer, it is possible that it could lead to significant and increasing tropical activity towards southwest Saudi Arabia with the flow of cooler winds towards the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere due to the weakness of the subtropical jet stream in northern Egypt and the Mediterranean region as explained above, resulting from the intensification of heat waves over central Europe.
The unusual behavior of the subtropical jet stream in recent years is the main reason for the unusual weather conditions affecting the region, which are expected to intensify in the coming period.