WASM- The Kingdom is being affected by a cold, rainy low-pressure system during periods in the northern and central regions extending to northern southern parts of the Kingdom, which includes even the Karak highlands. This low-pressure system will reach its peak impact during the hours of Monday/Tuesday night through Tuesday afternoon, particularly in the central regions during this period.
The first significant low-pressure system of this rainy season is expected to be positioned over northwest Syria and east of the island of Cyprus, accompanied by high-humidity westerly winds driven from the central Mediterranean Sea and east of the Atlantic Ocean. This will cause very large quantities of rainfall in wide areas of Palestine, including the Gaza Strip.
The WASM Regional Center has issued a yellow alert level for rainy weather conditions over the northern and central regions, while reaching orange level in western central regions, Ajloun highlands, and western Irbid Governorate, which may cause an increase in water levels in these areas.
The low-pressure system is expected to bring very large quantities of rainfall over a wide range of Palestine and its coasts, the Gaza Strip, and Rafah, coinciding with active winds, cold weather, and rough seas.
The low-pressure system begins its impact from late Sunday/Monday night in northern parts of the Kingdom|
The low-pressure system is positioned over the island of Cyprus during this period, which leads to the beginning of rainfall in the northern Kingdom, gradually extending throughout the day toward central regions including the capital Amman. The rainfall is intense during some periods, particularly in the northern regions and western central areas.
Peak during Monday/Tuesday night hours through Tuesday afternoon|
The peak of this low-pressure system will be during Monday/Tuesday night hours through Tuesday afternoon, with the focus during this period on the central regions of the country, and its effects sometimes extending to Karak highlands.
Wednesday.. Remnants of the low-pressure system impact|
The impact of the low-pressure system will decline during Tuesday/Wednesday night, while the remnants of the low-pressure system impact and the associated cold air mass will continue on Wednesday in the form of thundery showers in scattered areas of northern and central parts of the Kingdom for short periods during the day.
Weather stability at the end of the week and monitoring of another low-pressure system at the end of the month|
Weather will stabilize at the end of the week, and the WASM Regional Center is monitoring another low-pressure system accompanied by rainfall over wide areas of the Levant, the Arabian Peninsula, and Iraq at the end of the month. There are strong indications that it will be part of a long series of several consecutive, very cold low-pressure systems.
Is the expected low-pressure system early?
Despite the spread of incorrect information about a late rainy season, the expected low-pressure system will be early compared to this time of year due to the winter characteristics accompanying it. Rainy weather conditions at this time are characterized by atmospheric instability or near-Mediterranean low-pressure systems that usually position themselves north of Egypt. The rainy season accounts for no more than 5% during September, October, and only the first half of November. These periods are characterized by atmospheric instability distinguished by irregularity and its impact on some areas more than others, and these weather conditions are typical for Jordan's climate over many years.
Many strong rainy seasons witnessed their first significant low-pressure systems during the beginning of December, most notably the 1991-1992 season and the famous 2019-2020 season, as well as the 2021-2022 season which was characterized by strong low-pressure systems. The beginning of rainy and cold low-pressure systems at the end of November and beginning of December is statistically associated with the strength of rainy seasons, especially seasons that experience strong atmospheric instability that is not comprehensive at the same time and temperatures below seasonal averages during the beginning of the rainy season.
Despite this, most desert areas of Jordan and parts of northern parts of the Kingdom have recorded a strong rainy season performance until the time of writing this report, while a wide range of central and southern parts of the Kingdom record rainy season performance below the averages, which are considered climatically low at this time (accounting for no more than 5%), and this is considered typical at this time of year.