WASM – The Kingdom is expected to be affected by a heavy and widespread rainy condition that will also include desert areas, during the last days of the month and will intensify "significantly" during the beginning of November, coinciding with cold and winter weather in some periods, especially during the first days of November.
In detail, the Kingdom and countries in the region are expected to be affected by a rare cold wave in terms of seasonal timing from Tuesday until Friday, followed by thunderstorm rain showers in different parts of the Kingdom during the end of the week, which precede the main rainy condition.
- A "very rare cold wave in terms of seasonal timing"..
The Kingdom is expected to be affected by a cold wave that is rare in terms of seasonal timing causing a temperature drop in mountains and the capital to around 8 degrees Celsius and less than that in desert areas from Tuesday until Friday, coinciding with the activity of easterly winds, and temperatures are estimated to be below the seasonal average by around 10 degrees Celsius.
- Thunderstorm rain showers at the end of the week and retreat of the cold wave..
The rare seasonal cold wave retreats and clouds increase at medium altitudes with thunderstorm rain showers falling in different parts of the Kingdom, especially the eastern and northeastern regions, with heavy showers not ruled out in some limited areas, preceding the main rainy condition expected during the last days of the month.
- A heavy and widespread rainy condition starting in the last days of the month..
The rainy condition is expected to begin in the last days of the month (mid and end of next week), heavily and in several successive waves, where it begins as autumn rainy conditions with heavy rainfall in many areas during the last days of the current month, then as a cold and heavy rainy winter weather condition.
This heavy and widespread rainy condition is expected to begin at the end of this week over northern and western Saudi Arabia, gradually extending to wide areas towards northwest Saudi Arabia, the Levant, Egypt and Iraq during the last days, and the beginning of this rainy condition in this manner is considered unusual and resembles the conditions of autumn 2018.
It appears that the data from the WASM Regional Center's climate model were exceptionally accurate and not only in Jordan, but regionally and across the entire Arab world region, the Arabian Peninsula and Saudi Arabia with an accuracy rate exceeding 80%, and it was run over a wide range of Europe and North America at the upper atmosphere levels and jet stream pathway only, and it was a successful experiment in operating it to cover this large area with several recalibrations and developments.
The climate model will be run at the end of October with a new and major climate data cycle, but we do not expect significant changes compared to the seasonal forecasts issued in September.
We are proud of this scientific achievement, the first of its kind in the Arab world, in developing a climate model characterized by exceptional and unprecedented accuracy in the region designated for long-range forecasts, and this model will be further developed in the coming periods and another part of its data will be made available to the public.