WASM- Climate changes are intensifying in the Kingdom as a result of changes in atmospheric circulation over recent years, which are expected to intensify significantly in the coming period, especially with the end of summer and the beginning of the new rainy season 2023-2024, which necessitates strategic planning and preparation for more extreme and severe weather and climate conditions compared to the current period.
And beware of low-precision weather bulletins issued through some local media outlets and social media platforms that have doubled the level of losses from recent harsh weather conditions, which the WASM Regional Center uniquely warned about.
Real climate changes..
Due to the lack of awareness about the danger of climate changes in the Kingdom and focusing on incorrect information from some local media outlets, this has resulted in a very high level of losses from weather conditions, especially the recent case.
The Kingdom is affected by climate changes that have caused an increase in the number of strong and heavy rainy weather cases and increased risk of floods and torrents, which is an extension of severe weather conditions affecting most regions of the Middle East.
The climate changes affecting the Kingdom have caused a significant increase in rainfall rates as a result of an increase in the number of extreme weather cases in the Kingdom since the 2014 season, and an increase of approximately 50% in rainfall amounts has been recorded in many regions, and out of 9 previous rainy seasons, the Kingdom recorded 7 strong rainy seasons and intensification of severe extreme cases at a rate of 2.5 times compared to the period before 2013-2014.
The current 2022-2023 rainy season recorded a significant increase in rainfall rates exceeding 60% of seasonal averages, with some regions recording unusual performance exceeding 300% in some desert areas and in a rare occurrence, and the longest rainy season in more than 30 years was recorded.
Therefore, it is time to disseminate true information about climate changes that have been absent from local media outlets in recent periods, which have caused a "significant" increase in the level of losses from severe weather conditions, and from here the urgent need to organize the meteorological sector before the problem escalates.
Continuation of rare rains during summer..
The WASM Regional Center operated its climate model which detected a rare continuation of summer rainy cases at irregular intervals and unseasonable weather fluctuations as a result of exceptional atmospheric circulation resulting from a change in the course of seasonal wind movement and continued pushing of cooler air masses toward southern Europe and the Mediterranean Sea.
This unique model in the region, which operates using the statistical calibration method, was able to detect this weather condition a long time ago and issue early warning of it, and a red alert level was issued for severe weather conditions.
As a result of the unusual atmospheric circulation, this will cause the continuation of rainy cases at irregular intervals during summer and may sometimes be strong in some regions and caused more torrents as happened in the recent case.
Intensification of rainy cases with the beginning of the new rainy season..
Rainy cases intensify with the beginning of the new rainy season (2023-2024) and highly extreme weather cases are expected to be recorded, and this means preparation and strategic planning for the expected weather conditions which are expected to cause significant damage to infrastructure and various sectors, especially agricultural sectors, which will be more extreme than the weather cases that occurred in 2018 in the Dead Sea region.
Detailed scientific reasons..
The change in the course of seasonal wind movement in the Arabian Sea region, resulting from a large and sudden fluctuation in temperatures in the tropical regions of the Indian and Pacific Oceans combined, caused a sharp delay in the rainy season in India and the pushing of seasonal winds toward a wide range of the Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, and the Middle East region.
Humid seasonal winds coincide with the pushing of cooler air masses from the European continent, which intensifies large amounts of moisture and this results in strong, severe, and heavy rainstorms that coincide with large hailstones as a result of the rapid rise of air toward the upper and cooler layers, and this causes rapid and high condensation which results in thermal energy that transforms into kinetic energy within thunderclouds in the form of strong upward currents that increase the size of raindrops and hailstones, and this is clearly observed from the intensity of lightning and thunderstorms.
The amount of thermal energy released toward a kilogram of air is estimated at approximately 2000 joules per kilogram of air, which is enormous energy that transforms directly into strong kinetic energy causing rapid and strong movement of humid air toward the upper layers, which causes cumulonimbus clouds with high thickness and strength.
This organization of the atmosphere will continue to push these humid seasonal winds which possess enormous latent energy that transforms directly into thermal energy with condensation occurring, which is considered important fuel for operating strong thunderstorms, which indicates the continuation of such types of strong thunderstorms, and it is rare for humid seasonal winds to reach Jordan.
Cold air masses pushed from Europe toward the Mediterranean create tropical ripples that are counter to the cold ripples coming from the north pole direction, which causes the meeting of these dissimilar and completely opposite air masses to collide and cause highly extreme weather conditions.
The movement of tropical waves toward the mid-latitudes and the Mediterranean region is more complex compared to the movement of cold air masses, due to their opposite movement and separation from some dry and hot weather systems at times, which causes very complex and extreme weather conditions that occurred in Jordan in recent days, and these weather conditions require professional agencies to issue warnings and alerts at the appropriate time away from poor local media coverage that participated in increasing the level of losses from recent weather conditions resulting from a major deficiency in conveying weather information to various sectors which focused on climate changes that did not exist in the first place, thinking that all regions of the world are affected by similar climate changes.
El Niño climate phenomenon..
The World Meteorological Organization is monitoring the El Niño climate phenomenon which will cause increased extremism in weather cases, especially in the coming season in most of the Middle East region, the Levant, Jordan, and the Arabian Peninsula.
The El Niño climate phenomenon causes an exceptional and rare atmospheric circulation, causing the arrival of high-humidity air masses from tropical and subtropical regions toward the region easily and their meeting with cold air masses pushed from the central and eastern parts of the European continent.
This phenomenon will cause a sharp weakness in the speed of the polar and subtropical jet streams in the region of eastern Europe and eastern Mediterranean, which reflects the ease of arrival of polar and cold air toward the region during the coming rainy season and causing highly extreme weather conditions that may be unprecedented in recent climate records.
The weather condition that occurred in recent days, which the WASM Regional Center uniquely warned of with a high warning level and issued a red alert level, will recur in a more extreme manner during the coming autumn period and winter season, which necessitates all sectors to engage in strategic planning and be cautious of low-precision weather bulletins issued through local media outlets that participated in increasing the magnitude of losses from recent weather conditions.
Jordan faces more intense and extreme weather events due to intensifying climate change impacts
