WASM – The winter storm will intensify in the coming days and reach its peak with a noticeable drop in temperatures and strong winds on Monday and Tuesday. As a result of the continuous temperature decrease in all atmospheric layers, especially the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere, there is an increased chance of snow falling on high mountainous areas on Monday/Tuesday night, extending to mountainous elevations on Tuesday night through the end of the week but intermittently..
Heavy rains continue until the beginning of next week..
Unusually, heavy rains are expected to continue for several more days, especially in the north and center of the country amid very low temperatures, which will take the form of snow in mountainous areas starting Monday night through Friday morning. Thunderstorms and heavy hail are expected to occur occasionally from Monday night through Friday morning due to the deepening of severe cold in all atmospheric layers.
Snow expected starting Monday night..
Snow begins falling on high mountainous areas starting Monday night above elevations of 1200 meters above sea level, including the high elevations of Ajloun and Jerash as well as the peaks of Tafila and Shobak, extending during dawn and morning to the high peaks of Amman in the form of scattered snow showers or scattered snow in some areas. These precipitations will be heavy at times accompanied by thunder, heavy hail, strong winds and severe gusts. Accumulations are expected in the peaks of the north and south, and in small and limited amounts in the peaks of the center.
Intensifying cold weather on Tuesday and a new cold front on Tuesday/Wednesday night..
Precipitation will temporarily decrease during Tuesday daytime and become scattered showers mixed with hail and snow above elevations in the north and center of the country, coinciding with a significant increase in wind speeds to be strong with gusts that may exceed 100-110 km/hour and stir dust in desert areas.
As Tuesday evening and Tuesday/Wednesday night progress, a highly active polar-origin cold front will move into the country, coinciding with another major temperature drop in all atmospheric layers, especially the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere. This in turn leads to heavy rains in the north and center of the country mixed with hail and snow showers at times. Snow is expected on mountains exceeding 1000 meters above sea level and below that during the dawn and morning hours and noon on Wednesday, which may accumulate in some elevations and vary according to altitude in the north and center of the country.
The intensity of heavy precipitation will ease Wednesday evening in the north and center of the country and become light amid severe cold weather and strong winds at times.
Renewed heavy precipitation on wider areas Thursday and Friday..
Weather will become increasingly cold on Thursday through Friday morning, leading to renewed heavy precipitation over different areas, expected to take the form of snow precipitation over mountainous elevations in the north, center, and south of the country and the eastern desert region. The WASM Regional Center is monitoring heavy snow precipitation in some mountainous elevations Thursday/Friday evening and night through Friday noon
Beginning of winter storm intensity decline at week's end..
Temperatures will begin to rise gradually, with snow precipitation on mountainous elevations transforming into heavy and nearly continuous rain precipitation. These precipitations will continue through the beginning of next week, but rains will remain heavy to very heavy at times, making this winter storm one of the unusual weather cases.
Weather stability next week..
Weather is expected to stabilize next week with a gradual temperature rise and a decrease in the intensity of cold weather, provided this stability is not of long duration, as rainy weather systems, which are less cold compared to this storm, are expected to resume after February 9-10 and gradually.
Alerts..
Due to the continuation of heavy precipitation and "massive" amounts of rain, several rock and mud slides have occurred and floods have formed in valleys, and these weather conditions are expected to increase significantly in the coming days, which requires full attention to strong weather conditions. As a result of the major temperature drop starting Monday night, this will lead to freezing and frost on the peaks of high mountains, and snow falling on mountainous elevations which may lead to landslides. Wind speeds will intensify on Monday and Tuesday, and WASM issues a red alert level for weather conditions in the coming days.
Scientific Analysis|
Despite the confusion and daily changes in weather information multiple times from various media sources or social media pages, the WASM Regional Center uses a different method in weather forecasting, which is W.DMM technology that has proven its accuracy in snowy cases in previous years, which was distinguished by accuracy in monitoring the weather situation in recent days without our expectation of significant snowfall in previous days despite its spread in many media outlets and social media pages.
The reason for the confusion is the reliance on specific numerical outputs that change rapidly and are inaccurate in our regions despite their high accuracy in non-hydrostatic processing, as well as the lack of precise analysis of atmospheric values concurrent with the weather situation. High humidity from the Mediterranean coincides with severe cold, especially in the middle layers of the atmosphere, which are much more important than the upper and lower layers for snow precipitation. Because many rely only on the temperature of the lower and surface layers, which are inaccurate in medium and long-term periods and become more accurate with closer periods as they are frictional atmospheric layers that collide with difficult terrain, their temperature is rapid to change and very sensitive to what happens in the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere with severe cold that greatly contribute to their rapid cooling, especially with heavy precipitation.
The atmospheric depression coinciding with the winter storm is positioned over the coasts of Lebanon and southeast Cyprus, which helps push very cold polar winds around its center toward the eastern Mediterranean region with ease. Even if numerical outputs vary at times, if the atmospheric depression were positioned between Cyprus and Crete, heavy precipitation would be unlikely as would the cooling reaching Jordan, which is not present in numerical outputs.
Strong wind forces will be noticed during Tuesday daytime as the deepening atmospheric depression over the coasts of Lebanon causes a polar-origin cold front to move into the region, leading to regular precipitation over the center and north of the country and cold weather during evening, night, and through Wednesday noon.
The continuation of the atmospheric depression over southeast Cyprus and its further deepening due to continuous feeding from eastern Europe on Thursday, and the merging of the Red Sea depression with it from the south will help push high humidity coinciding with severe cold on Thursday and Friday and an expansion of heavy precipitation areas and a decrease in snowfall levels to below 900 meters in some elevations. In fact, temperature values in the middle and upper layers coinciding with low humidity occur rarely in our regions. The weather situation in the coming days is very important and should neither be underestimated nor exaggerated, and accurate information must be issued that clarifies the details of snow and rain precipitation.