WASM – The WASM Regional Center is issuing the monthly bulletin for December 2023 based on data from a climate model that operates using a calibrated statistical method and is the only advanced model of its kind in the Arab region, with accuracy exceeding 69% in many periods.
Based on this model, a stable beginning is expected for the coming month, followed by the return of weather depressions starting from the end of the first week of the month and the beginning of the second week, with strong and very cold weather depressions expected around mid-month, then a withdrawal of these weather depressions during the last third of the month with continued cold weather.
These are the expected details regarding the anticipated weather activity..
- From 1 to 4 of the month.. A stable period and less cold than usual.
- From 5 to 7 of the month.. A typical winter period, occasionally rainy and cold (Yellow Level)
- From 9 to 14 of the month.. A cold to very cold winter period with heavy rain at intervals (Orange Level)
- From 18 to 22 of the month.. A very cold and highly active period with the possibility of snow in some mountainous areas (Red Level)
- From 23 to 27 of the month.. A generally stable period with intense cold and occasional rain showers.
- From 29 to 31 of the month.. Return of highly active weather depressions.
These are long-range forecasts and do not substitute for daily weather bulletins and warnings issued by the Jordanian Meteorology Department. They are subject to change, and a margin of error is possible in these long-range weather bulletins, but they are usually close to reality even if the active time periods differ slightly.
Scientific Analysis..
The strong polar vortex is expected to continue over eastern Europe specifically, which deepens toward the eastern Mediterranean around mid-month, causing high activity of strong weather depressions and a significant drop in temperature. Sharp fluctuations in atmospheric pressure values in the Arctic region have been recorded, which caused the intensification of the polar vortex in eastern European areas.
The polar vortex has caused strong storms in wide areas of eastern Europe, which are expected to extend later during mid-month toward the eastern Mediterranean and the Levant region and eastern Mediterranean.
Details of this strong polar vortex that is striking eastern Europe sharply and intensely and is expected to extend to the eastern Mediterranean around mid-month and starting from December 9 will be issued, intensifying after mid-month.
