WASM - The WASM Regional Center issues the monthly bulletin for October, based on data from the climate model developed at WASM, the first of its kind in the region, with this model achieving 70% accuracy and specializing in long-range forecasts.
In detail, October is expected to be wetter than usual, as the Kingdom will be affected by several consecutive rainy weather systems, especially around mid-month. The Kingdom is also expected to be affected by a rainy weather condition in early October between the 6th-8th of the month.
The Kingdom is expected to be affected by heavy rain around mid-month, especially after October 18th, as well as colder weather and rain at the end of the month with a high chance of flooding during that period.
The rainy period is expected to continue through the first two weeks of November 11th, then the performance of the rainy season is expected to gradually decline until the beginning of winter, as this will be issued in a detailed seasonal weather bulletin in another report.
The expected rainy weather conditions during October, based on the expected alert levels, are as follows..
- October 6-8: Rainy weather and colder conditions within the yellow alert level.
- October 12-15: Thunderstorms and within the yellow alert level.
- October 19-24: Heavy rain and flood risk within the orange alert level.
- October 28-31: Rain and cold weather within the orange alert level.
WASM recommends waiting the first week before harvesting olives, due to the expectation of another rainy condition that will increase olive production and many agricultural crops. It also recommends preparing for the rainy season during the beginning of next month due to the expected early start of the season. WASM recommends all sectors to prepare for the rainy season and the flood risks expected during the second half of the month.
Our developed model operates on a statistical principle, with equations added to study years of similarity and similar periods with the addition of many variables to derive different weather forecasts. The early start of the rainy season does not mean the continuation of the same performance in the remaining periods, as rainfall interruptions are expected occasionally and will be predicted based on model data expected in the end of November and until the end of December.
