WASM – WASM Regional Center issues the seasonal weather bulletin "40-day bulletin" for the remainder of the winter season and during the beginning of spring using the only climate model of its kind in the Arab region, which accurately tracked weather conditions that occurred in January through early February, which resulted in massive amounts of precipitation.
It is expected that winter and rainy weather systems will continue intermittently during the second half of the rainy season and the remainder of winter, with continued cold weather persisting late into winter and early spring. Snow chances are expected to continue, especially in the last days of February and early March, and will recur in a more limited manner at the end of March, which typically occurs in some years.
Warm periods expected occasionally|
Warm periods are expected to occur occasionally, specifically in the second half of March, but they will coincide with sudden fluctuations in temperatures due to the expected continuation of polar air masses over Turkey and Eastern Europe, which are expected to surge suddenly in some periods. A short and temporary warm period is also expected during the end of February.
Chances of snow recurrence|
Snow chances remain possible again in many mountainous regions, especially during the last days of February as well as early March, and again in a more limited manner during the end of March, coinciding with sharp and sudden temperature fluctuations and strong winds.
Continuation of heavy rainy conditions|
Heavy rainy conditions are expected to continue affecting most regions of the Kingdom, including desert areas as well. Heavy rainy conditions have been affecting the Kingdom since October, and the current rainy season is considered better than the previous one due to better coverage of weather systems, longer duration, and greater intensity. No "dry waves" are expected to occur. WASM advises local media to be careful, especially during periods of warm stability (which were less than usual this season), and advises farmers not to worry and to continue rain-fed agriculture, as the current rainy season is expected to continue into a late period of spring.
Details of expected weather conditions over 40 days|
February 21-23 | A rainy and snowy weather low over high mountains.. Weather alert level.. Orange.
February 24-26 | A normal stable warm period (be cautious of media exaggeration and continue rain-fed agriculture).
February 27 to March 8 | A polar wave that may escalate to a winter storm accompanied by large amounts of precipitation and snowfall (Red alert level).
March 12-14 | Normal cold winter conditions with rain (Orange alert level)
March 15-21 | A warm and stable spring period with temperatures around 20 degrees Celsius (a normal stable period, continue rain-fed agriculture, and the end of the rainy season is not expected).
March 22-31 (Sharp weather fluctuations, sharp temperature variations, and high probability of strong and very cold rainy conditions) – Red alert level.
Warm stable periods are "normal" and do not warrant concern..
Most regions of the Kingdom have recorded 80-100% of their complete rainy season, and there is no fear regarding the water and agricultural situation. There is no drought wave affecting the Kingdom, and the Kingdom has been far from drought waves for years. Due to the expectation of temporary warm stable periods, they do not warrant fear and concern and are normal and a natural part of the climate cycle in Jordan, which came this season "short and less than usual." WASM advises caution regarding some local media outlets that exaggerate the severity of these waves and spread alarm, which results in major losses in the agricultural sector, especially in rain-fed agriculture, which forms an important part of agricultural income.
