WASM- The Kingdom is affected by a "strong" weather instability situation due to an expected "high humidity" tropical wave starting Saturday evening and continuing for a long and unusual period, which will bring large amounts of rainfall to most areas of the Kingdom including desert and low-lying areas with warm seasonal temperatures. The tropical wave is expected to deepen mid and late next week and strongly affect most "or all" of the Kingdom. WASM Regional Center will conduct continuous and precise monitoring of the weather situation and identify dangerous areas on a daily basis. WASM also recommends continuous monitoring of warnings from the Jordanian Meteorological Department.
- Clouds increase Friday and Saturday daytime with light limited showers..
The tropical wave approaches the Kingdom and concentrates northwest of Saudi Arabia on Friday and Saturday daytime with light rainfall showers occurring amid continued warm heat in most areas and occasional wind activity.
- Saturday night until Monday morning.. beginning of weather condition impact..
The strong weather condition begins and the tropical wave arrives toward the Kingdom, pushing directly from the Arabian Sea and across the Red Sea, causing an increase in thunderclouds and heavy rainfall showers at times, which cause flooding in low-lying areas and valleys, especially in southern regions and parts of central and eastern Kingdom, coinciding with strong winds and thunderstorms.
- Tropical wave deepens mid and late next week..
The "strong" tropical wave deepens toward the Kingdom significantly mid and late next week with increased chances of thunderstorms, hail, heavy rainfall, strong winds and widespread flooding, amid a noticeable temperature drop. WASM Regional Center recommends continuous monitoring of warnings issued by the Jordanian Meteorological Department and not taking the weather condition lightly.
- Tropical wave continues for an extended period..
The tropical wave is not expected to recede until the end of the first week of November, followed by a significant temperature drop and return of cold, humid and rainy conditions due to the expected impact of the Eastern Mediterranean region by cold and high humidity air masses bringing heavy rainfall.
WASM Regional Center is monitoring the weather situation, and more precise details will be issued in upcoming bulletins and critical locations and peaks of the weather condition will be identified, as these situations are characterized by strength, surprise, and heavy rainfall in short periods causing flooding.
WASM Regional Center succeeded "with exceptional precision" in determining the timing of these strong weather situations long in advance through using the Center's own climate model, which is distinguished by quality and unprecedented long-range forecast accuracy in the region.
Scientific Analysis..
WASM Regional Center detected a "strong tropical wave" that began concentrating over the Arabian Sea and East Africa region, causing the formation of a strong cyclone that struck Yemen and Socotra Island. As it reached land, this cyclone transformed into a strong and high humidity tropical wave concentrated in the Red Sea region and southwest Saudi Arabia, causing large amounts of rainfall in the Mecca and Jizan regions.
This tropical wave is expected to concentrate in the Tabuk and Al-Jawf regions and east Egypt, causing "severe weakening of the subtropical jet stream" and cold air flow from Europe through the upper and middle atmospheric layers, increasing atmospheric activity. The tropical wave simultaneously works on strong disturbances in the middle and upper atmospheric layers, which stimulates cold air flow through the upper and middle atmospheric layers toward the region, additionally
The tropical wave will concentrate over Jordan, Tabuk, Al-Jawf and Red Sea regions, northeast Egypt and Sinai due to surface atmospheric pressure decrease near Palestinian, southern and Gaza Strip, Sinai coasts, which is expected to cause strong winds in many periods.
Humidity flow will be high especially mid and late next week and directly across the Red Sea as a result of atmospheric pressure decrease over southeast Mediterranean and tropical wave concentration over those areas.
Jordan.. Weather Alert| A "Severe" Weather Instability System Begins Saturday Night and Continues for an Extended Period
