WASM – The WASM Regional Center has issued a red alert level for strong weather conditions expected on Sunday and Monday over wide areas of the Kingdom as the country is affected by a rare seasonal rainy situation which may be classified as unprecedented in modern climate records in some areas of the Kingdom compared to this time of year.
In detail, the country is affected by an unusual atmospheric low-pressure zone at this time, located over Egypt, the Mediterranean region and western Saudi Arabia, causing the advancement of moist seasonal winds toward the Kingdom and increased thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday over wide areas of the country, including most desert areas and major cities.
The impact of rain clouds begins on different areas of the Kingdom, including Aqaba, during the daytime of Sunday. These thunderstorms intensify during the evening and night and take the form of heavy thunderstorms in the southern areas of the country, including Shobak, Tafila, Ma'an and the surrounding areas.
These thunderstorms gradually extend toward the center and north of the Kingdom and its northeast during the night of Sunday/Monday and the morning of Monday, resulting in heavy rainfall, especially in the Dead Sea region and parts of the center of the country and northeastern areas, which include Mafraq, Azraq, the capital Amman, Madaba and the surrounding areas.
The weather condition is concentrated during the evening of Monday in the eastern desert region of the Kingdom, moving away from the western areas of the country, coinciding with a drop in temperatures.
The weather stabilizes on Tuesday and improves, with pleasant spring-like conditions in general in the mountainous areas and slightly hot in the low-lying areas and the Jordan Valley.
Warning of sudden flash floods and transported floods..
As a result of the expected heavy rainfall, especially between the evening of Sunday until the daytime of Monday, the heavy rain is expected to cause transported floods and sudden flash floods in many areas, especially the southern region including Aqaba, Wadi Araba, the eastern desert region and parts of the center of the country and the Dead Sea region.
Strong winds and sudden dense dust waves temporarily..
The thunderstorms cause a sudden activity of "downdraft" winds, which rush from the strong thunderstorms toward the lower and surface layers of the atmosphere, causing sudden dense dust waves, especially in desert areas, and wind gusts sometimes exceeding 80 km/hour.
The WASM Regional Center recommends continuous monitoring of the warnings issued by the Department of Meteorology and the instructions of Civil Defense, Public Security and official sources, and be alert to rumors circulated in media outlets.
Scientific reasons for the rare weather condition..
The reason for the weather condition is due to a sharp drop in atmospheric pressure over Egypt, Sudan and western Saudi Arabia, which caused the advancement of moist seasonal winds from the Arabian Sea across the Red Sea toward the region east of the Mediterranean Sea and north and west of Saudi Arabia and Egypt, coinciding with the presence of a colder air mass in the east of the Mediterranean, causing the formation of strong thunderstorms and widespread heavy rainfall that is rare seasonally.
The Kingdom continues to be affected by sharp weather fluctuations due to an unusual circulation of the atmosphere that causes the advancement of cold masses toward the Mediterranean and the extension of the current strong rainy season until the beginning of summer in a rare manner, as the advancement of cold masses toward the Mediterranean basin in an unusual manner contributes to causing the advancement of high-humidity tropical and subtropical waves toward the Mediterranean, the Sahara, and the Arabian Peninsula in a rare manner, and it is expected that these weather conditions will continue during the summer season, especially during late summer.
Is the weather condition a result of a Khamsin low-pressure system?
We receive many messages about the nature of the weather condition due to a Khamsin atmospheric low-pressure system being circulated in local media outlets, but the WASM Regional Center denies this incorrect information. The weather condition is caused by a large area of low atmospheric pressure over Egypt and the Mediterranean, which takes thermal characteristics due to the advancement of a colder mass toward the Mediterranean, especially in the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere. The season of Khamsin low-pressure systems ended a long time ago and it is difficult for them to form at the current time as they require different characteristics, especially the presence of polar air and high activity of Mediterranean baroclinic low-pressure systems whose impact has ended due to the absence of polar mass influence over the Mediterranean, and wind activity resulting from a sharp extension of the Red Sea low-pressure system toward Jordan and northern Egypt and not as a result of a Khamsin low-pressure system.
Sharp climate changes and an unprecedented major increase in rainfall rates..
Summer rainfall has begun to recur more strongly since the 2014 season due to sharp climate changes, with a major increase recorded in rainfall rates in Jordan exceeding 50% in some areas over the last 9 years, contrary to what is circulated in local media outlets which misunderstand climate changes in Jordan and which have caused major losses in various sectors during recent seasons, especially from sudden floods and flash floods. Of 9 previous rainy seasons, the Kingdom was affected by 7 strong unusual rainy seasons in an unprecedented manner in the history of modern climate records.
Awareness must be raised about climate changes affecting Jordan and countries in the region to reduce losses from them and adapt to them as much as possible, especially for the agricultural sector, as a high rate and frequency of floods and flash floods have been recorded in various areas of the Kingdom over the last 9 years, which have caused major losses and a large number of casualties.
WASM will raise awareness about the reality of climate changes in Jordan away from rumors, in order to reduce losses and help communities adapt to them.
WASM Regional Center is unique in early forecasting of the weather condition..
The WASM Regional Center has been unique through its advanced and high-precision proprietary technology using its own system (W.DMM- Dynamic Multi-Model Method) and also using its climate model that operates using a calibrated statistical method, which is the only one of its kind in the Arab region. The WASM Regional Center was able to issue an early warning of this weather condition more than 3 weeks ago using this technology.
Early warning greatly helps strategic planning, especially with the spread of incorrect information in media outlets and rumors that were talking about a weak rainy season and dry and hot waves. These incorrect information cause a disruption in strategic planning and an increase in the rate of losses in various sectors in Jordan and the Levantine region which witnessed the strongest rainy season in the history of modern climate records. The need for accurate and correct solutions increases with the intensity of climate changes and coinciding with rumors and incorrect information in weather forecasts in the media and misunderstanding of climate changes in the Arab region.
