WASM – Jordan is being affected by sharp climate changes that have become increasingly pronounced since 2015, particularly around significant increases in temperatures reaching 1.0 to 1.5 degrees above their normal rates, especially during summer, which has reflected in the occurrence of many climate changes, most notably a "significant" increase in rainfall rates in the northern and central regions.
High temperatures in summer..
Jordan and the eastern Mediterranean region, particularly the southeastern parts of the Mediterranean, are facing a clear rise in temperatures and repeated occurrences of severe heat waves, most notably the heat wave that occurred at the end of summer 2020, which lasted around 3 weeks, as well as the strong heat wave that occurred at the end of this summer (summer 2022). The recurrence of strong heat waves has begun to increase at a rate of 1.5 strong heat waves per year compared to 0.5 strong heat waves before 2015. August 2022 also recorded the third hottest August month in the history of modern climate records, following August 2021 and 2010 respectively.
With the increase in strong heat waves in the Kingdom, this has begun to reflect on the warming of the Mediterranean region, particularly its southeastern parts, by an average of +2 to +3 degrees Celsius above their normal rates, causing temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius in the eastern Mediterranean waters, especially at the end of summer, which has reflected in a significant increase in surface humidity levels and temperatures in most areas of the eastern Mediterranean.
The average temperature in August 2022 reached 34.8 in the city of Amman at the Northern Marka station, which is the third hottest August month in the history of modern climate records according to the Jordan Meteorological Department data.
Large quantities of rainfall in the north and center of the Kingdom..
The northern and central regions of the Kingdom record "large" quantities of rainfall, particularly since 2015, as the northern regions record excellent to strong rainy seasons consecutively from the 2015 season until the 2022 season, while the central regions recorded strong rainy seasons except for the 2017 season. The continuation of excellent to strong rainy seasons over 7 consecutive years in the northern regions is unusual, and according to the interpretation of experts at the WASM Regional Center, this is due to the rise in temperatures in the Mediterranean region and the northern Atlantic Ocean.
High temperatures in the Mediterranean region have caused an increase in evaporation rates and a rise in water content in the atmosphere, which reflects in heavy and severe rainfall, particularly rainfall that comes in short periods and large quantities, causing flash flood and sudden flood waves, which have become more frequent since the 2015-2016 season.
High temperatures in the northern Atlantic Ocean have also caused radical changes in the movement of the jet stream. The jet stream consists of high-speed air currents that may exceed 400 km/hour blowing at altitudes of 9-11 km above sea level, leading to significant changes in the atmospheric system in the atmosphere. This resulted in a significant rise in atmospheric pressure over the European continent and the occurrence of drought and continuous heat waves, which have begun to increase since 2018. According to European studies, these strong heat waves are expected to become annual.
High temperatures in the northern Atlantic Ocean have caused the emergence of an active area in the formation of severe Atlantic storms, which push hot and dry winds from Africa to the European continent, resulting in the emergence of strong and deep atmospheric highs consolidating in wide parts of the European continent, which in turn push polar and cold winds towards eastern Europe, then Turkey, and finally the eastern Mediterranean region reaching Jordan, which has reflected in the increase in eastern Mediterranean lows in recent years and significant rainfall exceeding its averages, particularly in the north and center of the Kingdom.
Due to the warming of the Mediterranean Sea, this has caused an increase in the depth of eastern Mediterranean lows and their occasional development into subtropical cyclones, which are rare and unprecedented weather phenomena in the eastern Mediterranean region, first appearing in the 2018-2019 season and beginning to recur annually. These subtropical cyclones, also known as Subtropical Cyclones, cause massive quantities of rainfall and severe winds, and are weather phenomena similar to tropical cyclones, most notably the Dragon Storm that occurred in March 2020.
Significant fluctuation in rainfall quantities in southern regions..
Contrary to the northern and central regions, a more severe fluctuation in rainfall quantities has been observed in the southern and desert regions of the Kingdom due to the deepening of eastern Mediterranean lows that have begun to increase in recent years, which has reflected in a change in the movement of the subtropical jet stream. This has resulted in irregular rainy seasons in the southern and desert regions, but at the same time a significant increase in rainfall quantities in the north and center of the Kingdom by an average of 150% compared with normal years.
Benefiting from climate changes..
With the increasing climate changes in Jordan, it is possible to benefit from these changes by changing the method and type of agriculture in various regions of the Kingdom to types that can withstand frost waves and temperature fluctuations, as well as cultivating agricultural crops that benefit from the large quantities of rainfall in the north and center of the Kingdom.
Preparations should also be made for sudden flood waves, particularly around the Dead Sea region and valleys in the north and center of the Kingdom as well as the far southeastern regions and the Aqaba region. Climate changes have become a reality and are affecting various regions of the world.
Climate changes do not mean "drought and heat," which is an incorrect definition that spreads in many media outlets due to misunderstanding of these climate changes. Climate changes are unusual and uncommon weather conditions that occur in various regions, and the rise in temperature or the phenomenon of global warming is what caused these climate changes, which have transformed in recent years into a climate crisis.
Forecasts for the 2022-2023 season in Jordan..
The long-range climate forecasting model that the WASM Regional Center developed has been activated, and results have been obtained for a strong rainy season expected during the coming season, as well as very cold temperatures, particularly in the middle of winter.
Rainfall is expected to concentrate in the autumn season more towards the north and center of the Kingdom, but in an irregular and scattered manner. Rainfall is expected to become regular and clear with the beginning of December – January – and weather coldness is expected to be more than usual. Rainfall remains concentrated in the north and center of the Kingdom before expecting concentration of precipitation during January – with coinciding severe weather coldness towards many regions including the southern areas.
Frost waves are expected to be more powerful than usual during January – with an increased chance of snowfall, particularly in the second half of the month. The WASM Regional Center will issue detailed seasonal bulletin details for Jordan and the region. Most of WASM's bulletins were distinguished by high accuracy during the previous period due to WASM's unique development of a highly accurate climate model based on statistical equations and years of similarity.
More intense and cold rainy seasons are expected in Jordan due to sharp global climate changes
