WASM- The seasonal bulletin is issued based on the climate model developed at the WASM center, which relies on statistical results from previous years with the addition of numerous equations for long-range forecasts.
It is expected that the current rainy season will begin early and continue during October (month "10") and extend until the first half of November (month "11"), then a rainfall break is expected until the beginning of winter, and temperatures during that period are expected to be slightly below their normal rates.
Jordan and countries in the region are expected to be affected by several rainy weather systems that are sometimes heavy at the beginning of the rainy season, particularly during the last two weeks of October (month 10) through the first half of November (month 11).
Month 10 (October)..
Rainy weather conditions are expected, particularly in the second half of the month with more moderate weather conditions. The rainy conditions concentrate in the second half of the month, and a high chance of flash floods in some areas is expected. In scientific detail, a strong high pressure system is expected to dominate central and eastern Europe, coinciding with strong storms hitting the Atlantic Ocean region, the British Isles, and western Canada. This allows cold air masses from eastern Europe to advance toward the eastern Mediterranean region, Turkey, and northern Arabia, coinciding with the extension of the Red Sea low-pressure system from the south. More details can be found in our monthly bulletin here, and this month is classified as rainy and the most moderate.
Month 11 (November)..
The impact of the rainy season intensifies at the beginning of the month through the beginning of the second week, then gradually decreases thereafter. The rainy conditions concentrate over Saudi Arabia and the Arabian Gulf countries, and gradually with the middle and end of the month. The Kingdom is expected to be affected by an extension of the Siberian high-pressure system that brings stable and dry weather conditions in general and the beginning of a rainfall break expected to continue until the beginning of winter, and this month is classified as rainy and the coldest.
Month 12 (December)..
The rainfall break continues until the third week of the month with weak rainy conditions expected, particularly in the first days of the month. Gradually, toward the end of the third week of the month, rainy weather conditions return. The Siberian high-pressure system dominates during this month as shown on the map. This high-pressure system brings stable and dry weather conditions to the region, with temperatures above their normal rates and this month is classified as dry and warm.
WASM Regional Center expects rainfall around its normal rates during January and significantly above normal rates during February, with temperatures around their normal average rates.
The rainy season is expected to be better than the previous one, with rainfall occurring during the beginning of the rainy season with rainfall breaks, and intensifying again starting from the end of month 12, clearly during month 2.
The current rainy season is expected to end with rainfall around to slightly above normal rates in terms of precipitation, and temperatures around to slightly above normal rates.
These results are issued from the climate model at WASM with release date 23-9-2021. The model is run only twice during each month since it relies on climate and statistical data.
