WASM – The WASM Regional Center is monitoring "rare" weather conditions for the European continent, where strong, delayed heat waves are expected to recur coinciding with the beginning of autumn affecting a wide range of Europe including western British Isles, France, Germany and surrounding areas. These heat waves extend to affect "virtually all regions of Europe".
Heat waves begin from southwestern Europe..
It appears that the climate model data from the WASM Regional Center was "extremely accurate" in detecting the delayed heat wave on the European continent within the 15-8 and 21-8 updates. This heat wave will begin to impact from the middle of next week and will intensify significantly during its end and through the first week of September coinciding with the beginning of autumn, which raises serious concerns about "unusual" atmospheric circulation that has begun to intensify with the start of autumn and according to forecasts and studies issued by the WASM Regional Center, related to an unusual path of the subtropical and polar jet streams due to extreme thermal changes occurring in the Atlantic Ocean and Pacific Ocean regions.
Expected temperatures..
Due to the astronomical beginning of autumn and the decrease in solar radiation intensity, temperatures will nevertheless record in most regions of Europe between 33-40 degrees Celsius, especially as we move towards the southwestern part of the European continent and parts of its center and east. This rare, delayed autumn heat wave will cause unusual weather conditions later and during the second week of September towards the Mediterranean region.
Unusual weather conditions and continuous monitoring of the Mediterranean region..
Strong heat waves hitting Europe in summer cause more moderate winds to surge towards the Mediterranean, and due to the beginning of temperature decline especially in the far north of Europe and its northeast coinciding with the beginning of autumn climatically, and with the magnitude of the rare autumn heat wave towards Europe, this will result in a continuous surge of winds cooler than usual towards the central and eastern Mediterranean, increasing significantly and notably during mid-September. The center continuously and carefully monitors the central Mediterranean region, where the chances of severe weather disturbances forming in that area are greatly increased, which may escalate to a subtropical storm as a result of the rise in temperature of the Mediterranean region to large and unprecedented values in modern climate records.
Reasons for these rare weather conditions..
The WASM Regional Center was the first regional body to warn of an unusual path of the subtropical jet stream over the eastern Atlantic Ocean region as a result of temperature changes between the equator in the Atlantic Ocean region and its north, where tropical Atlantic Ocean surface water temperatures record a much colder rate compared to its north, which resulted in a sharp weakening of the subtropical jet stream with the addition of important factors regarding the weakness or non-development of the La Niña phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean region and a rapid rise in temperatures off the coasts of Canada and northwestern North America which resulted in unusual behavior as well of the polar jet stream.
This resulted in the continuation and succession of rare heat waves towards the European continent and parts of the Arctic and their persistence until this late time of the year. The WASM Regional Center expects these weather conditions to intensify during autumn and winter and these conditions to remain until at least the end of spring 2025, in the form of long warm dry waves separated by severe storms for short periods on the European continent.
The center will monitor the unusual weather conditions in the region during the coming period, where the "Dangerous Storms" index rises in the Mediterranean region and southern Europe and its southeast during autumn and winter of the upcoming rainy season.
WASM advises preparing for weather conditions throughout the Mediterranean region especially the central and eastern Mediterranean and northern and western Saudi Arabia during the coming period.