WASM | Cold and Wintry Low-Pressure Systems to Arrive by the End of the Week, with Persistent Widespread Heavy Rainfall Across the Region and Potential Record-Breaking Rainfall Totals in Some Areas
- Cold and wintry low-pressure systems bringing heavy and widespread rainfall are expected to affect the Levant, Iraq, northern Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait beginning late this week as polar air masses approach the eastern Mediterranean, a relatively rare occurrence for this time of year.
- Another tropical wave, deeper and richer in moisture, is being monitored for next week. It is expected to coincide with the cold low-pressure systems, resulting in additional heavy rainfall across the region, particularly over the Arabian Peninsula, Gulf countries, the Levant, Iraq, and Kuwait. For the first time this season, rainfall is also expected to extend into the Riyadh Region, Al-Qassim, and the Eastern Province.
- The recent significant rainfall event caused losses and fatalities across several areas of the Levant and Iraq. The regional WASM Center was the only regional source to identify this weather event at an early stage through its W.DMM model and proprietary climate model.
The November 2026 Monthly Outlook has been issued.
Detailed Forecast by Region and Country
Details of the Cold Low-Pressure Systems During the Second Half of the Week
The current rainfall event continues, mainly affecting northern Saudi Arabia, parts of Kuwait, Iraq, and eastern Syria. A new peak in activity is expected during the second half of the week, impacting northern and western Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and all Levant countries, including Jordan, Palestine, Syria, and Lebanon.
Several cold low-pressure systems are expected to develop, bringing heavy rainfall while coinciding with the approach of polar air masses to the region, an unusual pattern for this time of the year. These systems will later interact with a deepening moisture-rich tropical wave originating from the Arabian Sea, leading to another regional rainfall event next week centered over central, eastern, and northern Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the Levant.
Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Region, and the Arabian Peninsula
Thunderstorms will continue, although with reduced intensity, across parts of northern, southwestern, and northeastern Saudi Arabia, as well as Iraq and Kuwait. However, rainfall is expected to intensify once again from Tuesday through Thursday as cold low-pressure systems approach the eastern Mediterranean.
Thunderstorms may occasionally extend into northern parts of the Riyadh Region and northern sections of the Eastern Province in a scattered manner.
Temperatures are expected to decline significantly across northern and northwestern Saudi Arabia, with winter-like conditions arriving unusually early.
Heavy rainfall is expected to affect large areas of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries next week, focusing mainly on central and eastern Saudi Arabia, northeastern regions, Iraq, and Kuwait.
The Levant
The Levant is expected to be affected by several early-season cold low-pressure systems, beginning Wednesday over northwestern Syria, then Lebanon, and later extending into Jordan and Palestine on Friday.
These systems are expected to continue into the beginning of next week, bringing widespread rainfall and substantial precipitation accumulations across most areas, accompanied by cold and wintry weather.
Jordan
Temperatures are expected to decline on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain showers are forecast in parts of northern and central Jordan on Thursday under cold conditions, ahead of a highly active low-pressure system expected to arrive on Friday.
Heavy rainfall is forecast from Friday through next Sunday as the low-pressure system affects the Kingdom. Parts of northern and central Jordan may record significant rainfall totals amid unusually early cold and wintry weather.
Successive low-pressure systems and rainfall events are expected to affect Jordan during the coming period, with a potentially strong peak being monitored around mid-November. Further details will be released soon.
Syria
Polar air masses are expected to approach the region beginning Wednesday through northwestern Syria, leading to heavy rainfall and cold wintry conditions. Rainfall intensity is expected to increase on Friday, spreading to various parts of the country.
Rainfall activity is expected to continue throughout the coming period as low-pressure systems remain active. Weather systems are forecast to reach their peak around mid-November, with many areas, particularly coastal regions, potentially recording exceptionally high and even record-breaking rainfall totals.
Palestine
Polar air masses are expected to approach the region beginning Thursday, with scattered rain showers developing initially.
The influence of the low-pressure system will deepen on Friday, bringing large amounts of rainfall and widespread precipitation across most regions of Palestine, continuing into the beginning of next week.
Successive low-pressure systems are expected to persist during the coming period, with peak activity anticipated around mid-November.
Lebanon
The prolonged severe rainy conditions are expected to continue, with increasing chances of snowfall over the higher mountains by the end of this week due to the arrival of cold and rainy low-pressure systems during the second half of the week.
Iraq
Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop on Tuesday and Wednesday in the form of heavy rain showers affecting different areas intermittently.
More widespread and heavier rainfall is expected toward the end of the week as low-pressure systems affecting the Mediterranean and the Levant expand eastward, increasing the risk of flash flooding.
Another rainfall event is being monitored during the second week of the month and is expected to be even more widespread and more intense, God willing.
For more information and smart weather alerts, download the WASM Weather app:
iOS: WASM Weather on the App Store
Google Play: WASM Weather on Google Play