WASM | Cold and Wintry Low-Pressure Systems to Arrive by the End of the Week, with Persistent Widespread Heavy Rainfall Across the Region and Potential Record-Breaking Rainfall Totals in Some Areas
- Cold and wintry low-pressure systems bringing heavy and widespread rainfall are expected to affect the Levant, Iraq, northern Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait beginning late this week as polar air masses approach the eastern Mediterranean, a relatively rare occurrence for this time of year.
- Another tropical wave, deeper and richer in moisture, is being monitored for next week. It is expected to coincide with the cold low-pressure systems, resulting in additional heavy rainfall across the region, particularly over the Arabian Peninsula, Gulf countries, the Levant, Iraq, and Kuwait. For the first time this season, the rainfall is also expected to reach the Riyadh Region, Al-Qassim, and the Eastern Province, where significant rainfall accumulations are anticipated.
- The recent major rainfall event caused losses and fatalities across several areas of the Levant and Iraq. The regional WASM Center was the only regional source to highlight this weather event at an early stage through its W.DMM model and proprietary climate model.
The November 2026 Monthly Outlook has been issued.
Detailed Forecast by Region and Country
Details of the Cold Low-Pressure Systems During the Second Half of the Week
The current rainfall event continues, mainly affecting northern Saudi Arabia, parts of Kuwait, Iraq, and eastern Syria. A new peak in activity is expected during the second half of the week, impacting northern and western Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and then all Levant countries, including Jordan, Palestine, Syria, and Lebanon, during the weekend.
Several cold low-pressure systems are expected to develop, bringing heavy rainfall while coinciding with the approach of polar air masses to the region, an unusual pattern for this time of year. These systems will later interact with a deepening, moisture-rich tropical wave originating from the Arabian Sea, resulting in a regional rainfall event next week centered over central, eastern, and northern Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the Levant.
Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Region, and the Arabian Peninsula
Thunderstorms will continue, although with lower intensity, across parts of northern, southwestern, and northeastern Saudi Arabia, as well as Iraq and Kuwait. However, rainfall is expected to intensify again from Tuesday through Thursday as cold low-pressure systems approach the eastern Mediterranean.
Thunderstorms may occasionally extend into northern parts of the Riyadh Region and northern sections of the Eastern Province in a scattered manner.
Temperatures are expected to drop significantly across northern and northwestern Saudi Arabia, with winter-like conditions arriving unusually early.
A widespread regional rainfall event is expected to affect large parts of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries next week, focusing mainly on central and eastern Saudi Arabia, northeastern regions, Iraq, and Kuwait.
The Levant
The Levant is expected to be affected by several early-season cold low-pressure systems beginning Wednesday over northwestern Syria, then Lebanon, before extending into Jordan and Palestine on Friday.
These systems are expected to continue through the beginning of next week, bringing widespread rainfall and substantial precipitation totals across most areas, accompanied by cold and wintry weather.
Jordan
Temperatures are expected to decline today and on Wednesday. Rain showers are forecast across parts of northern and central Jordan on Thursday amid cold conditions, ahead of a highly active low-pressure system expected to arrive on Friday.
Heavy rainfall is forecast from Friday through next Sunday due to the low-pressure system. Parts of northern and central Jordan may record significant rainfall totals amid unusually early cold and wintry weather for this time of year.
Successive low-pressure systems and rainfall events are expected to affect Jordan in the coming period, with a potentially strong peak being monitored around mid-November. Further details will be released soon.
Syria
Polar air masses are expected to approach the region beginning Wednesday through northwestern Syria, bringing heavy rainfall and cold wintry conditions. The rainfall is expected to intensify on Friday and spread to different parts of the country.
Rainfall activity is expected to continue during the coming period as low-pressure systems remain active. These weather systems are forecast to reach their peak around mid-November, with many areas, especially coastal regions, potentially recording exceptionally high and record-breaking rainfall totals.
Palestine
Polar air masses are expected to approach the region beginning Thursday, with scattered showers developing initially.
The influence of the low-pressure system will deepen on Friday, bringing large amounts of rain and widespread precipitation across most areas of Palestine, continuing into the beginning of next week.
Successive low-pressure systems are expected to continue affecting the region, with peak activity anticipated around mid-November, God willing.
Lebanon
A highly active low-pressure system is expected to affect Lebanon from Thursday through the beginning of next week, bringing heavy rainfall, substantial precipitation accumulations, and snowfall over the higher mountain peaks.
Iraq
Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop on Tuesday and Wednesday in the form of heavy rain showers affecting different areas intermittently.
More widespread and heavier rainfall is expected by the end of the week as low-pressure systems affecting the Mediterranean and the Levant expand eastward, accompanied by an elevated risk of flash flooding.
Another rainfall event is being monitored during the second week of the month and is expected to be even more widespread and more intense, God willing.
For more information and smart weather alerts, download the WASM Weather app:
iOS: WASM Weather on the App Store
Google Play: WASM Weather on Google Play