WASM - The world is expected to be affected by a climate phenomenon called "La Niña," which refers to the cooling of temperatures in the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean below their normal rates. This significantly impacts the circulation of the atmosphere, particularly the main weather systems in the atmosphere, which result in tangible weather conditions.
La Niña is expected to be generally weak and short-lived, gradually disappearing during the end of autumn and the beginning of winter, which will have a stronger effect on the atmospheric circulation.
La Niña generally causes slight cooling of the atmosphere if favorable conditions are present. Cold weather conditions increase over parts of the European continent, and North Atlantic storms weaken compared to normal conditions. Weather conditions intensify over North African regions in general, and temperatures become colder and more severe in parts of Siberian regions, especially during winter.
Regarding the Levant and Arabian Peninsula regions, weather conditions typically decrease and temperatures rise, with rainfall events becoming more spread out during ideal and strong La Niña cases. This is not entirely similar to what is expected to occur in the coming year due to the weakness of the expected La Niña globally, which affects the nature of rainy weather conditions.
In general, the chance of more severe cold weather conditions increases during these years in parts of Egypt, Turkey, and the Levant region. However, temperatures rise generally within the Arabian Peninsula region due to the nature of the subtropical jet stream, which takes a path resulting in stronger weather conditions over Libyan territories, Turkey, Greece, and even northern parts of the Levant region, in addition to western Saudi Arabia and its western coasts and even the regions of Medina and Mecca and Hail.
Due to rising global temperatures, we expect the atmospheric circulation to be affected differently compared to even similar periods and years, such that the chances of strong and extreme weather conditions are elevated, as occurred during previous months. It was observed that weather conditions, storms, floods, and heat waves were recording extreme severity compared to normal conditions. This is due to changes in atmospheric behavior and the appearance of a new hole in the ozone layer in the Arctic region.
La Niña is an important climate phenomenon that directly affects the circulation of the atmosphere over more than 40% of the atmosphere and then indirectly on other parts of the atmosphere. Other climate phenomena also affect the expected movement of the atmosphere and determine the severity of weather conditions, then determine the strength of rainy seasons and temperature behavior.
The WASM Regional Center will issue the seasonal weather bulletin, which provides general expected weather conditions for the next 3-6 months. The seasonal weather bulletin is expected to cover the period of October-November-December in terms of temperatures and weather conditions and will be issued during the coming week. The WASM Regional Center is distinguished by providing high-accuracy long-range weather forecasts due to its reliance on a climate model developed internally that studies major and minor climate data and years and periods of similarity, in addition to finding what is called the behavior of similar periods and years based on data. The accuracy of seasonal and monthly bulletins reached the highest possible levels during previous months, exceeding 75-80%, through which WASM was able to forecast all weather conditions, heat waves, and temperature behavior during previous months.
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