WASM – The region will be affected, starting from the end of the week, by a widespread rainfall event beginning over northwestern Saudi Arabia and parts of the Levant, then expanding and intensifying gradually next week to cover large areas of the Levant, the Arabian Peninsula, Iraq, and northern Egypt.
Details
Several highly disturbed, moisture‑laden tropical waves will deepen from the Arabian Sea across the Red Sea region toward western and northern Saudi Arabia and parts of the Levant by the end of this week and the beginning of next week. These waves will coincide with cold air masses over the eastern Mediterranean, initiating the rainfall event.
As the tropical waves deepen further and upper and mid‑atmospheric layers become increasingly disturbed and colder, the weather system will expand and intensify across wide areas next week, with the potential for the event to evolve into a regional flash‑flood situation.
The Wasm Regional Center has already indicated in its seasonal and monthly bulletins that widespread heavy rainfall events will begin during the last third of October.
Tropical Waves
Tropical waves are warm, highly humid, and strongly disturbed air masses originating from unstable tropical and subtropical regions—expected in this case to come from the Arabian Sea. Due to rising atmospheric pressure over southwestern Asia and parts of Indonesia, several tropical waves are expected to push toward the region.
Cold Air Masses and Weather Systems over the Eastern Mediterranean
Due to atmospheric circulation patterns and their connection to extremely anomalous climatic drivers, a strong high‑pressure system will remain centered over most of Europe, especially central Europe. This will allow cold air masses to continue flowing toward the region, coinciding with the arrival of highly humid and disturbed tropical waves.
A Long‑Lasting Rainfall Event
Strong indicators suggest that the rainfall event will persist for an extended period due to unusual jet‑stream behavior in the upper atmosphere, along with the formation of tropical and subtropical moisture corridors from the Arabian Sea driven by global climatic conditions. This will prolong the impact of the rainfall event and increase the likelihood of it developing into a regional flash‑flood episode.
Most Affected Areas
Data received by the Wasm Regional Center from its medium‑ and long‑range model W.DMM, supported by climate‑model outputs, indicate that the most affected regions will be:
- Northern and western Saudi Arabia, extending into northeastern areas
- The northern and western parts of central Saudi Arabia
- Kuwait
- Iraq
- All regions of the Levant, including Jordan, Palestine, Syria, and Lebanon
- Northern Egypt
Further updates will be issued continuously.
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