WASM – The tropical Pacific Ocean region continues to be affected by a "neutral" phase since the 2024-2025 season, which means there is no dominant influential climate phenomenon dominating this important region that plays a significant role in atmospheric circulation.
It is expected that the tropical Pacific Ocean will transition from the "negative" neutral phase to a "slightly positive" neutral phase during the coming season. Due to the stability of tropical Pacific Ocean data during the coming season, it is not expected to be a major factor in influencing atmospheric circulation compared to other climate factors.
The atmosphere is experiencing unusual circulation that has recently confused computational models and caused a decrease in the accuracy of weather forecasts in various parts of the world, due to "severe" temperature variations in the oceans combined with the continued impact of climate change.
Expected Atmospheric Circulation|
Atmospheric circulation is not expected to change significantly during the coming period compared to the previous period, except for some changes that may increase positive impacts on western and northern Saudi Arabia and northern Egypt being better affected by influential weather conditions, with good improvements in weather patterns affecting the eastern Mediterranean region.
As for the current summer season, which is expected to be more extreme in European continental regions in terms of consecutive heat waves, especially in central and western Europe compared to Eastern Europe during the previous summer, this means heavy rainfall rates in southwest Saudi Arabia during the expected summer rainfall season.
Slight shifts in the atmosphere may often be evident synoptically in weather patterns, especially in the Mediterranean region and the Arabian Peninsula.
Sharp Thermal Differences in Ocean Regions|
The main influence on atmospheric circulation results from sharp thermal changes in ocean areas around the world and not only in specific areas. Sharp thermal changes in oceans around the world have begun to increase significantly in recent times, which have greatly affected atmospheric circulation, especially the circulation of the subtropical jet stream.
We do not expect important changes in atmospheric circulation during the coming rainy season except for some minor changes that may lead to different results sometimes on the ground.
WASM Regional Center will issue many studies during the coming period while raising awareness about climate change and its real impact on the region through all social media platforms to reduce the spread of confusing weather information to the public or inaccurate information.