Wasm Regional Center continues to monitor a high probability for the development of a “subtropical” Mediterranean storm that is expected to impact the central and eastern Mediterranean starting mid‑week, bringing stormy conditions and record rainfall to many areas across the central Mediterranean and unsettled weather over its eastern parts.
In detail, an autumnal cold front will push southward from Eastern Europe and across the Aegean Sea toward the central and eastern Mediterranean in the middle of this week. This will trigger severe atmospheric instability over the central Mediterranean, followed by a sharp and rapid drop in surface pressure, leading to the formation of a rare subtropical storm.
According to data received by the Wasm Regional Center from its advanced W.DMM system—which relies on dozens of scenarios and selects the most probable outcome after calibrating numerous atmospheric variables—the most likely track is eastward toward the eastern Mediterranean basin. However, due to the highly complex and rapidly changing nature of such systems, the Wasm Regional Center will maintain close monitoring in the coming days.
Weather conditions across the Levant and the eastern Mediterranean will become unsettled through mid and late week, accompanied by a noticeable drop in temperatures, especially as the storm approaches the coasts of the Levant late next week, causing autumnal disturbances and fluctuations. Changes in the storm’s track remain possible.
A powerful storm struck northern Libya in September 2023, causing catastrophic human and material losses. The death toll exceeded twenty thousand due to extreme rainfall and the collapse of a dam, exacerbated by the absence of early warnings and weak infrastructure—particularly amid declining accuracy in official meteorological services across the Arab region in recent years.
The weakening of the jet stream (strong upper‑level winds) and the warming of Mediterranean waters have contributed to an increase in the number of subtropical storms. The most recent example was Storm “Byron,” which impacted the eastern Mediterranean, Palestine, Greece, and Cyprus in December 2025.