WASM – The WASM Regional Center is monitoring an unusual atmospheric circulation pattern concentrated in the Mediterranean region, resulting from a weakening of what is known as the "jet stream," which blows at high altitudes exceeding 9-12 km above sea level. This sharp and unusual weakening is causing cold and polar-origin air masses to reach the Mediterranean region much earlier than normal.
As a result of this unusual circulation pattern and coinciding with the unprecedented high temperature of the Mediterranean Sea recorded in modern climate records, another strong storm is expected to develop in areas between central and eastern Mediterranean regions this time (south of Greece and north of Libya), causing severe and harsh weather conditions that warrant caution in the region.
- The strong storm is the third this month..
Due to the unusual atmospheric circulation pattern, the expected Mediterranean storm is expected to be the third this month. Following the first storm that caused significant loss of life in Morocco and major material losses in the central Mediterranean region with flash floods formation, and with the onset of the second strong storm "during the writing of this report," which is expected to coincide in a rare manner with an influx of polar-origin winds toward the Mediterranean, raising a high probability of more powerful storms forming due to elevated indicators of atmospheric instability of the "barotropic" type over the Mediterranean region, which increases the likelihood of subtropical storms taking on tropical characteristics.
Central and eastern Mediterranean under monitoring..
The WASM Regional Center is placing the central and eastern Mediterranean region under monitoring for the risk of these storms after mid-month (between September 19 and 25), and will issue all updates continuously.
Preliminary data for a strong rainy season in the Mediterranean region and the Middle East..
According to data issued by the climate model of the WASM Regional Center, which issued highly accurate results for summer 2024 and the first half of September and detected storms formed in the central Mediterranean for a long time, this climate model, which operates using flexible statistical calibration method for similar time periods, is expected to affect the region with a strong rainy season concentrated in the Mediterranean, the Arabian Peninsula, and southeastern Europe, with details coming soon in a detailed seasonal bulletin for the region.